On 19th June, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un in the capital of North Korea, Pyongyang, to sign a comprehensive partnership agreement between the two states. Such a treaty marks a significant escalation in the ongoing Russian-DPRK relationship and for Cold War 2.0 generally. The alignment between two states that share in opposition to NATO and the USA poses a significant threat, with a further formalization of relations only exacerbating the possibility of a future conflict.
The signed agreement, while vague, has stated that the two nations will provide “mutual assistance in the event of aggression’’ against each other, causing significant security risks for both Ukraine and the Asia Pacific region.
President Putin’s visit to Pyongyang followed the United States allowing Ukraine to attack military targets in Russia with American-supplied weapons. The grand meeting was an orchestrated display of the measures Putin is willing to take to win in Ukraine. The meeting also demonstrated Russia’s ability to leverage relationships with rogue states to pressure Western leaders.
The meeting between President Putin and Kim Jong Un will also benefit China, which has seized the opportunity to begin negotiations with both Russia and North Korea to allow Chinese ships to move freely on the river Tumen into the Sea of Japan, which Russia previously opposed. Now, however, Putin’s quest for allies in the Asia-Pacific region has led to increased co-operation with China.
While the meeting in Pyongyang is a significant geopolitical moment, the DPRK-Russian relationship has been developing since 2022. Sources from the White House stated in February that North Korea had provided Russia with artillery shells, rockets and ballistic missiles. Commenting further, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik suggested that North Korea has supplied 7,000 containers of 152mm/122mm artillery rounds and other military equipment to Russia over the last year. Declassified information was also revealed, noting that Russia was using North Korean short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) to attack Ukrainian targets.
In addition to supplying Russia with weapons, the Russia-DPRK relationship has begun to flourish on a deeper cultural and economic level. In late March of 2024, Russia displayed this on-going relationship on the international stage by vetoing a United Nations Security Council resolution that would have extended the 14 year long North Korea UN Panel of Experts mandate. In addition to international political maneuvering, the two countries had already been trading goods such as oil. They also made further steps to boost cultural adjournment; for example, in February of 2024, North Korea opened its borders for the first time since the outbreak of COVID-19 to a group of 100 Russian nationals.
Observers expect that, following the Pyongyang summit, this cultural and economic relationship will continue to deepen. In the wake of the visit, Russian senator and First Deputy Head of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, Vladimir Dzhabarov, called for Central Asian migrants in the far east region of the country to be replaced by more ‘’disciplined’ North Korean ‘’guest workers.’’ He went on to praise the improved cultural and economic relationship with the DPRK, poetically concluding that “life has shown that sometimes you look for friends somewhere else, but all this time they were next to us.”
First and foremost, Russia needs arms and ammunition for the conflict in Ukraine, which North Korea can supply on short notice. But, more broadly, the increased formality of the Russo-Korean relationship also signifies a further attempt by Russia to reshape the post-1991 global order.
Essentially, North Korea and Russia perceive themselves as sharing a common enemy in America and NATO. Commenting on the coalitions involved in Ukraine, Professor Niall Ferguson describes the Russo-Korean alliance as part of “Cold War 2.0”. Just as America and the EU are supporting Ukraine, Russia also needs friends and so unofficial arms dealing and closer ties with North Korea are necessary. In addition, by warming its relationship with the DPRK, Russia is signaling to the West that any attempt to counter Russian foreign policy will be met with a united axis of resistance against American dominance.
The alignment between Russia and North Korea is also beneficial for Pyongyang. In warming the relationship, North Korea has two clear diplomatic objectives; the first entails branching out from its over-reliance on China, and the second is disrupting American hegemony. In the eyes of General Secretary Kim Jong Un, the latter of these points is vital to the security of North Korea, which views the threat of American influence on the Korean peninsula as mirroring Russia’s perceived threat of NATO on the Ukraine-Russia border.
In addition, by supplying weapons to Russia, Pyongyang is obtaining real-world data on the efficacy of its armaments. Ukraine therefore serves as a testing ground for North Korea to boost its own military intelligence in preparation for future conflicts. Furthermore, as noted by National Security Council spokesperson John Kirkby, North Korea may also be using the relationship as an opportunity to obtain fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, and other war materials from Russia.
Alongside the DPRK’s international objectives, Russian has also aided Kim’s domestic agenda. Prolonged COVID-19 restrictions and sanctions have hampered North Korea’s economy. While North Korea does not release economic data, predictions from international observers outline that 60% of the country is believed to be living under the poverty line – with the economy hitting a contracting low of 4.5% in 2020. Anwita Basu, Head of Europe at Country Risk at Fitch Solutions, described the arms transfer as a ‘’mega deal’’ for Pyongyang, which will see the North Korean economy grow by 1% in 2024. Alongside economic growth, the agreement has seen North Korea receiving food and advanced technology to aid the state with its own domestic agenda. In March 2024, it was reported that Russia has began supplying oil to the DPRK, with an initial five tankers arriving from Vostochny port.
In the grand scheme of things, Putin’s outreach to North Korea came as no surprise to the international community. But, by embracing the Kim regime so publicly, Putin is both displaying his ability to operate unilaterally outside America’s sphere of influence and pressuring Western leaders into ending to the war in Ukraine on Russia’s terms. The Pyongyang meeting came after Putin had publicly outlined his requirements for a cease-fire; we can thus infer that Putin is signaling that continued fighting in Ukraine will only lead to a further globalized conflict.
The relationship between the two countries continues to pose a serious security risk to Ukraine. North Korean missiles have already been used to kill Ukrainians and more such munitions are sure to follow. The vagueness of the relationship is also concerning due to its minimal clarity on what constitutes mutual self-defense. The open-to-interpretation nature of the agreement has led to concerns that North Korean soldiers could soon be deployed to Russian occupied territory in Ukraine.
Confirming the significance of the the Putin-Kim summit, officials from Seoul noted that the new Russian-North Korean agreement was a direct threat to national security. Commenting on the agreement, national security adviser Chang-Ho-Jin said that South Korea would now reconsider the issue of arms support to Ukraine, bringing South Korea more directly into Cold War 2.0. The comments from South Korean officials have, in turn, sparked a fierce reaction from President Putin, who told reporters in Vietnam that Russia would be willing to arm North Korea if necessary. Additionally, the agreement in Pyongyang has also been publicly condemned by the Japanese government; Spokesman Yoshmasa Hayashi described the agreement as “unacceptable.”
Russian-DPRK collaboration may now advance from arms trading towards the sharing of cyber intelligence and other sensitive technologies. Following the agreement made in North Korea, it is now apparent that Russia is uninterested in the global political consensus around its relationship with North Korea. More agreements are therefore likely. Despite this, the two countries may still have to pay homage to Beijing, which may push to shore-up or weaken Russian-DPRK relations according to Chinese priorities.