President Trump’s return to office has fortuitously coincided with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria as well as ceasefire agreements between Israel and both Hamas and Hezbollah. These developments have weakened Iran’s Axis of Resistance and present a historic opportunity for regional stability. While Israel’s military operations in Lebanon and Gaza could resume, Syria’s civil war has seemingly reached a conclusion. The U.S. should maintain cautious engagement with the Syrian transitional government through strictly enforced conditions for further normalization. The outcome of Syria’s transitional government will be highly consequential for the region and so ensuring a positive outcome in Syria must be a top priority.
The large and loose coalition of militias led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist paramilitary group with past ties to ISIS and Al-Qaeda, had planned a long campaign to Aleppo. Instead, the unexpected disintegration of Assad’s security forces brought this coalition to Damascus in mere days. The new transitional government of Syria is unprepared and will have to navigate serious challenges to preserve the peace. In his first national address after the fall of the Assad regime, the new President of Syria, Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly Muhammad al-Jolani), promised to hold a “national dialogue conference” to prepare a new constitution that would guarantee democratic governance and protect the rights of women and religious minorities.
This announcement surprised many given the Islamist government HTS previously established in Idlib and the prevalence of Islamist paramilitaries in the coalition. This contradiction prompts skepticism that these guarantees were merely to have sanctions on Syria and HTS lifted. Still, these guarantees create vulnerabilities for the new Syrian transitional government as they must fulfill competing promises acceptable to not only most Syrians, but also the Islamist extremists that make up the government and security forces.
These vulnerabilities were further exposed by the recent episode of violence against civilians in western Syria after the suppression of a pro-Assad insurgency. Mass executions of civilians and widespread looting as Islamists blared music over loudspeakers resembled the atrocities committed by ISIS in Syria and Iraq nearly a decade ago. This was the inevitable outcome of a country dominated by Islamist militants, including many foreign fighters from across the globe. Turkey has been one of the greatest sponsors of Islamists in Syria and must now join the U.S. in supporting the implementation of an inclusive, democratic transitional government and constitutional drafting process.
Initial steps to form a “National Dialogue Preparatory Committee” and “National Dialogue Conference” have included only token representation of women and religious minorities. Al-Sharaa has also increasingly centralized the transitional government around himself, prompting some concern, although it will not be apparent until the new constitution is drafted if he intends to rule as a dictator. Regardless of al-Sharaa’s personal ambitions, a prolonged transitional period raises the risk of destabilizing foreign influence in Syria. Iran has lost a vital partner in Assad and will seek to reemerge in Syria, rebuild its proxies, and re-open its land bridge to the Mediterranean.
It is a core national security interest to ensure a stable transition to a democratically elected government reflecting Syria’s pluralistic society. Inclusion of Syria’s religious minorities in drafting the constitution is crucial to the legitimacy of its final product. A sectarian theocracy, even nominally democratic, would also lack popular support from Syria’s Sunni population as it is alien to the pluralistic society that has endured in Syria for centuries; many senior Islamist militants are foreign fighters with little knowledge of Syrian history and culture.
A strict imposition of Islamic jurisprudence would certainly not result in a stable transition. In this scenario, many of Syria’s religious minorities, especially Christians, would attempt to flee the country permanently like many Syrian Christians already have, erasing the oldest Christian communities in the world. Syria would transform into a hotbed for sectarian violence as opposing Islamists battle for control, possibly resurrecting the Islamic State, something the U.S.’s ongoing military presence in Syria seeks to prevent.
The conclusion of the civil war has enabled the U.S. and its local partner, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), to conduct further operations against ISIS remnants. This has also paved the way for the resumption of the repatriation of hundreds of families of former ISIS fighters to Iraq. The suppression of the Islamic State hinges on stability in the North East, allowing the SDF to continue military operations and repatriations. The recent agreement to integrate the SDF-governed Autonomous Administration of North East Syria and its military force into the Syrian transitional government without coming under direct control of HTS is extremely promising, though full implementation will have to be monitored. A resumption of high-intensity conflict would create a vacuum for ISIS to easily reconstitute itself and greatly increase its capabilities for international terrorism.
Through consistent engagement with carrots and sticks, the Trump administration can hold the Syrian transitional government accountable to building a democratic and civil state with legal equality for all, regardless of faith or ethnicity. Turkey will be a particularly important channel for this diplomacy and pressure must be exerted to align with U.S. regional interests, including the cessation of support for Islamist militants in Syria’s transitional government. The Trump administration’s first priority in Syria is to identify appropriate opportunities for sanction waivers conditioned upon accountability for the recent massacres by Syrian government security forces as well as progress towards a democratic constitution. Sanctions relief should be weighed carefully to balance humanitarian needs and reconstruction efforts with maintaining relevant sanctions for human rights abuse and corruption.
Until the transitional government meets these conditions by demonstrating their intention to build a democratic Syria, the Trump administration should maintain adamant pressure on both the Syrian transitional government and its sponsors. The chaotic alternative poses a serious risk for the return of ISIS and could enable Iran to regain lost capabilities to return to terrorizing the levant. The Trump administration has a historic opportunity in Syria for long-term regional stability while protecting key U.S. national security interests it cannot ignore.