As Hezbollah’s military capabilities dwindle with each passing day, Lebanon’s corrupt ruling class grows ever less protected. This presents a rare opportunity for the Lebanese themselves to degrade decisively this mafia’s dominance, a prerequisite for Lebanon’s rehabilitation and eligibility to enter any regional peace plan. As of November 27th, 2024, a 60-day ceasefire has gone into effect in Lebanon under American, French, and Israeli auspices, with the prospect of Lebanon joining the Abraham Accords suddenly a real one. Yet, the Lebanese need first to put their house in order before such a prospect can materialize.
Since well before 7 October 2023, Lebanon had been suffering from multiple scourges brought on mainly by Hezbollah and related groups, into whose clutches the country had fallen. Lebanon’s 2019 economic collapse and the 2020 massive explosion at the Beirut Port were perpetrated by the ruling mafia, protected ever since by Hezbollah, the armed militia. But despite these past disasters, Hezbollah’s resounding defeat on the battlefield has made the possibility of Lebanon normalizing relations with Israel more palpable than ever.
An unshakable mathematical proportionality governs the relationship between Hezbollah and Lebanon as a whole: the more thoroughly the military capabilities of Hezbollah are degraded, the bolder and more vocal the majority within Lebanon’s various sectarian communities will be in their open opposition to the Iranian-backed militia. As confidence grows in the ability of the various Lebanese communities to reassert joint sovereignty over their nation, concrete steps to defend against specific threats on the ground from remnants of armed Iranian proxies are being taken. In parallel with this, the promised shoring up of the Lebanese Armed Forces by both France and the United States will enhance internal stability by preventing a return of the militia’s preeminence. The stringent terms of the ceasefire and the determination to enforce them, coupled with the virtual closing of Syrian space as a conduit for Iranian armaments following the demise of the Assad regime, spell nothing less than Hezbollah’s complete military demise, entailing a marked diminishing of the militia’s political power.
The elation across Lebanon’s communities at the reduction of Hezbollah’s influence has been irrepressible. Millions of Lebanese were already opposed to Iran’s deadly stranglehold over their country; now, they perceive the hope offered by the Abraham Accords. Hezbollah’s oft-repeated slanderous accusation of “Zionists of the interior,” hurled at Lebanese who oppose Iran’s colonization of Lebanon, no longer intimidates as it used to. Lebanon’s anti-Iran/Hezbollah communities constitute a reliable partner for both the U.S. and Israel. The Lebanese are desperate to be rid of Iranian influence in order to pursue regional peace and prosperity with their neighbors. Suddenly, a unique opportunity for peace breaking out between Israel and Lebanon could be upon us, particularly given President Trump’s recent reelection with a landslide mandate. It was under Trump’s first term that the Abraham Accords came into being and so under his second term they could certainly be expanded.
While some Arab nations will insist on the implementation of a two-state solution normalizing relations with Israel, Lebanon is not one of them. Bluntly, and for a clear Lebanese majority, Lebanon’s interests come first before Palestine, particularly after Lebanon has suffered extensively from its entanglement with matters Palestinian for decades. Joining the regional peace process is paramount for most Lebanese, even among the Sunni community, traditionally sympathetic to the Palestinian plight. Bolstering Lebanon’s neutrality regarding chronic regional disputes will be crucial to sustaining the country’s stability following its entry into the Abraham Accords. For Christians specifically, such an entry will begin to answer the vexing question of Abraham’s “lost children”, namely the Christians, missing in the template of the Abraham Accords thus far.
Another unavoidable mathematical proportionality states that as Iran loses influence, nations become more likely to actively participate in the Abraham Accords, as is now the case in Lebanon and Syria. For Lebanon specifically, this means the complete depletion of Hezbollah as a fighting entity, with no possibility of its reconstitution, and will be necessary to save the beleaguered Lebanese from continued conflict. As matters stand, Lebanon has very few major contentious issues with Israel. The precisely targeted and methodical nature of Israel’s war in Lebanon against Hezbollah and what has unfolded in Syria make this outcome a far more attainable goal.
A more robust approach to facilitate Lebanon’s assenting to the Abraham Accords could involve a temporary military takeover in Lebanon after having been reinforced as promised by the U.S. and its allies. The suspension, for a specified period, of political life with a view to cleaning house from mafia remnants would follow, after which there would be a return to normal parliamentary and presidential politics featuring young new leadership faces from all the communities under a meritocratic system in place of mere clan connections. Large numbers of bright Lebanese youth who were forced over the years to leave Lebanon, yet who retained in their hearts a love for their homeland, would feel encouraged to return and take part in the reconstruction of their country with renewed vigor and optimism.
Though much of this could be akin to daydreaming, at least there is budding hope in a credible roadmap that would lead Lebanon to the safe harbor of regional peace. With the waning of the Iran axis and its local proxy, the industrious and entrepreneurial Lebanese will themselves engage in rebuilding their nation. They have done it countless times before throughout their turbulent history. The Israelis say they have destroyed about 80 percent of Hezbollah’s military and other capabilities, and in the process, they have been careful to minimize non-Hezbollah casualties. This is an outcome that no one could have imagined. Hope, patience, goodwill, and the determined completion of the concrete tasks on the ground will usher in a rosy future for Lebanon and its surroundings.