With the Amazon on the edge of collapse, climate pledges remain heavy on words and light on action. With progress stalling out on key issues like climate finance at COP29, delegates to COP30 in Brazil next fall have their work cut out for them.
The Amazon rainforest, vital for global climate regulation and biodiversity, faces escalating threats from deforestation, wildfires, and human activity, with over 88 million hectares lost between 1985 and 2023. Severe droughts and increased fires in 2023–24, driven by deforestation and crop burning, have not only accelerated carbon emissions but also jeopardized indigenous territories, pushing the ecosystem closer to an irreversible tipping point.
The Conference of the Parties (COP), the decision-making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), has been at the forefront of global climate negotiations since its inaugural session in 1995. Despite landmark agreements like the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Climate Agreement, the urgency for decisive action has only intensified. Global carbon dioxide emissions have surged by over 60 percent since COP1, and 2024 has brought an alarming milestone: temperatures exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels for the first time, marking what is likely to be the hottest year in recorded history.
Against this backdrop, COP29 convened in Baku, Azerbaijan, with representatives from 198 nations and over 32,000 participants, including scientists, activists, indigenous leaders, and policymakers. This year’s summit, which took place last month, comes at a pivotal moment, particularly as Brazil, home to the largest share of the Amazon, prepares to host COP30 in Belém in 2025.
Lofty Goals and Meager Funds
At COP29, climate finance emerged as a critical and contentious issue, with developing nations advocating for trillions in funding to mitigate emissions, adapt to worsening climate impacts, and limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Despite ambitious calls, the financial commitments announced fell far short of expectations, drawing sharp dissatisfaction from Global South delegates.
Developed countries pledged a target of $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 to support developing nations in climate adaptation and green transitions. However, only $300 billion of this sum is to come from grants and low-interest loans, with the remainder dependent on private investments and speculative funding mechanisms like fossil fuel levies. This stark disparity between demands and pledges drew widespread criticism, highlighting the ongoing inequity in climate negotiations.
Claudio Angelo from Brazil’s Observatório do Clima condemned the historical inertia of wealthier nations. He remarked:
Rich countries spent 150 years appropriating the world’s atmospheric space, 33 years loitering on climate action, and three years negotiating [a settlement] without putting numbers on the table. Now, they force developing countries to accept a deal that not only lacks new money but could also increase their debt burden.
Harjeet Singh, global engagement director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, highlighted the failure to quantify the trillions needed or ensure these funds would be provided as grants, calling the ongoing rhetoric “hollow” and accusing COP29 negotiations of being “fraught with deadlock.”
While criticism of the financial package dominated discussions, some leaders struck a more optimistic note. EU climate envoy Wopke Hoekstra described COP29 as “the start of a new era for climate finance,” while UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell issued a cautionary note, warning that failure to secure meaningful financial commitments could undermine global climate goals. “The preservation of the Amazon,” Stiell emphasized, “is a case in point.”
Indigenous Leadership and Rights
Indigenous peoples have long been at the forefront of climate action, serving as stewards of biodiversity and defenders of critical ecosystems like the Amazon. Data shows that protected areas and indigenous territories account for only 5.8 percent of the Amazon’s total deforestation, despite mounting pressures from illegal mining, agriculture, and land grabbing. However, Greenpeace Brazil revealed that deforestation in indigenous territories increased by 44.5 percent in 2024, with mining activities encroaching on lands of the Kayapó, Yanomami, and Munduruku peoples. At COP29, indigenous leaders highlighted the urgent need for stronger protections of their territories and greater recognition of their rights in climate strategies.
Brazilian activist Alessandra Korap Munduruku delivered a powerful message, warning against the contradictory actions of governments that promote infrastructure projects like Brazil’s Ferrogrão mega-railway, which threatens 49,000 square kilometers of protected forest, while presenting pro-climate narratives. In her Letter from the Tapajós River to the World, she highlighted the destructive impact of such projects on indigenous lands and cultures, calling for adherence to international agreements like International Labour Organization (ILO) Convention 169, which mandates proper consultation with indigenous communities.
The formation of the Troika of Indigenous Peoples, a coalition of indigenous leaders from Brazil, Australia, and the Pacific, was a key development at COP29. This initiative aims to ensure that climate policies align with the Paris Agreement while respecting indigenous self-determination and land rights. Brazilian minister of indigenous peoples Sônia Guajajara, herself an indigenous leader, called for expanded indigenous representation at COP30 in Belém, asserting that their voices must be integral to global climate decision-making.
Social movements and grassroots organizations also played a significant role at COP29, with the XI Pan-Amazonian Social Forum (FOSPA) declaring a state of emergency over the Amazon’s rapid degradation. FOSPA’s position document condemned the commercialization of biodiversity and called for stronger protections of ancestral lands, urging the global community to uphold commitments to indigenous and local defenders of the Amazon.
These calls for action resonated with negotiators, as discussions at COP29 included advancing Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to standardize carbon markets. A newly approved framework for high-integrity carbon credits aims to incentivize deforestation reduction, while a joint statement from fourteen countries — including Peru — reaffirmed the REDD+ initiative. These efforts emphasized the need for fair pricing of forest carbon and greater inclusion of indigenous voices in climate finance decisions.
The adoption of high-integrity methodologies for carbon credit verification was seen as a step toward incentivizing sustainable practices, but questions remained about their implementation. Market-based solutions like REDD+ risk commodifying nature while failing to address systemic issues driving environmental degradation.
Progress and Controversies in Climate Agreements
While COP29 sought to advance global commitments to combat climate change, progress was overshadowed by controversies and unresolved tensions. Among the most contentious issues was ongoing reliance on fossil fuels, a point of friction between nations advocating for rapid transition and those resisting such measures due to economic interests.
The precedent set at COP28, where nations first acknowledged the need to transition away from fossil fuels, was notably diluted at COP29. Fossil fuel–producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan, lobbied to remove references to phasing out fossil fuels from the final agreements. This backtracking drew sharp criticism from environmental groups and vulnerable nations, who argued that failing to confront the root causes of climate change undermined the entire process.
Grassroots movements and alternative forums like the Global Meeting for Climate and Life in Oaxaca, also known as the “anti-COP,” underscored growing dissatisfaction with official negotiations. Activists from marginalized communities criticized COP29 for prioritizing powerful interests over vulnerable populations, particularly indigenous groups and local communities affected by extractive industries. The event sought to bridge gaps between climate action and land defense movements, concluding with a roadmap for future activism — including planned demonstrations at COP30 in Belém — aimed at turning the world’s attention to the heart of the rainforest, where the tension between development and conservation will take center stage.
Amazon Restoration Initiatives and Global Partnerships
Amid the mounting threats to the Amazon, COP29 highlighted several restoration initiatives and international partnerships aimed at safeguarding this critical ecosystem. These efforts underscored the need for a comprehensive approach that balances environmental protection with sustainable development while centering indigenous rights and local leadership.
The Global Forest Coalition, in collaboration with over thirty civil society organizations, launched the Baku Forest Declaration. This initiative called on COP29 negotiators to prioritize justice, equity, and sustainability in climate policies. Included in the declaration is the rejection of the market-based mechanisms like carbon trading that underlie proposed solutions like REDD+. The declaration contends that frameworks such as REDD+ risk exacerbating inequities, and maintains the importance of ensuring direct funding for community-led, gender-just conservation solutions.
Regional collaboration also featured prominently. The Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO), comprising eight Amazonian countries, advanced its Forest Financing Strategy in partnership with the United Nations Forum on Forests. This strategy seeks to combat deforestation and illegal activities such as mining and logging, while promoting sustainable livelihoods. ACTO’s efforts include coordinated law enforcement, enhanced financing mechanisms, and the formation of a specialized Amazon climate research group. Scheduled for presentation in Brasília this month, the strategy is a crucial step toward integrated regional responses to the Amazon’s challenges.
However, these initiatives face significant hurdles. While the Brazil Restoration & Bioeconomy Finance Coalition, launched by US president Joe Biden, pledged $10 billion in investments for Amazon conservation by 2030, only a fraction of these funds has materialized. Critics argue that such contributions, including a $50 million commitment to the Amazon Fund, are insufficient and serve more as symbolic gestures than substantive action.
Moreover, the region continues to grapple with the long-term impacts of extractive industries. Between 1985 and 2023, mining in the Amazon increased by an astonishing 1,063 percent, and agriculture expanded by 598 percent, replacing vast tracts of biodiverse forest with monocultures and degraded landscapes. This unchecked expansion has rendered the Amazon increasingly vulnerable to wildfires, drought, and biodiversity loss.
Civil society and grassroots organizations have emphasized the urgent need for alternative models of development. FOSPA’s declaration of a “permanent state of emergency” for the Amazon is a rallying cry for governments to take decisive, coordinated action before irreversible damage occurs.
As the world looks toward COP30 in Brazil, these restoration and partnership efforts will face a critical test. With the Amazon’s survival hanging in the balance, success will depend on translating pledges into tangible outcomes.
Belém or Bust
As COP29 concluded, the spotlight turned toward COP30, which will be hosted in Belém, Brazil, in the heart of the Amazon rainforest in November 2025. This choice is both symbolic and strategic, reflecting Amazonia’s centrality to the global climate agenda. It also places Brazil, a country grappling with its contradictory character as both an “environmental power” and a major exporter of agricultural and extractive resources, under intense international scrutiny.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has vowed to end deforestation in the Amazon by 2030, a commitment that aligns with Brazil’s Paris Agreement goals to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 67 percent by 2035. During his administration’s first six months, deforestation rates reportedly fell by 34 percent. However, critics caution that these gains are fragile, especially as Brazil continues to court powerful agribusiness interests and forge deals that risk undermining its climate pledges. For example, partnerships with JBS, one of the world’s largest meat producers, aim to expand beef exports to China — a move that could intensify deforestation, pushing the Amazon closer to its ecological tipping point. The recently negotiated European Union–Mercosur free-trade agreement also presents threats to the Amazon and its inhabitants.
Hosting COP30 in Belém presents both an opportunity and a challenge for Brazil. On one hand, it provides a platform to showcase the country’s leadership in climate diplomacy and highlight successful initiatives like the Amazon Fund. On the other hand, it exposes the contradictions in Brazil’s approach, where commitments to conservation coexist uneasily with the promotion of mining, infrastructure expansion, and large-scale agriculture.
Internationally, COP30 will be a test of whether nations can deliver on the promises made at previous summits. Countries are expected to present updated national plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), that outline more ambitious emissions reduction targets aligned with the 1.5 degree Celsius goal. For Brazil, the stakes are particularly high: as a host nation, it will be under pressure to demonstrate concrete progress in protecting the Amazon and reducing its reliance on extractive industries.
Beyond government actions, COP30 is also anticipated to be a focal point for civil society and grassroots activism. Activists and indigenous leaders plan to use the event to amplify calls for systemic change, including an end to the commercialization of biodiversity and greater protections for ancestral lands. Alternative forums, like the “anti-COP” and the People’s Summit gatherings, will likely draw attention to voices often marginalized in official negotiations, further intensifying the dialogue around justice and equity.
As the world’s largest tropical rainforest and a vital carbon sink, the Amazon holds the key to the global climate crisis. COP30 represents a pivotal moment: Will the international community rise to the challenge and commit to the ambitious, equitable solutions required to protect this invaluable ecosystem? Or will the event fall short, becoming another missed opportunity to address the defining crisis of our time?
Forestalling Cataclysm
A key lesson of COP29 for the climate movement is that climate politics must not be confined to official international conference halls. For Amazonia to be able to continue to sustain planetary life, business as usual is not an option. While the host country of the next COP, Brazil, plans to use it as a platform to showcase the country’s commitment to the climate, such claims will ring hollow if mining, mega projects, infrastructure, farming, and oil extraction continue unabated.
For civil society, perhaps the most important model in the world right now comes from Colombia. This Amazonian country is navigating a transformative energy transition under President Gustavo Petro’s administration, emphasizing a reduction in fossil fuel dependency while promoting environmental justice, economic diversification, and inclusivity for indigenous and marginalized communities.
The government has halted new oil and gas exploration licenses and fracking projects, leveraging a $40 billion investment plan to foster renewable energy, ecotourism, and sustainable agriculture. However, the fossil fuel sector, which constitutes a significant portion of exports and government revenue, presents a challenge to financial stability during this shift. Despite these hurdles, initiatives like energy communities, a net-zero buildings roadmap, and enhanced indigenous consultation offer hope for a just transition in one of the world’s most biodiverse nations, which is also South America’s third-largest producer of hydrocarbons in South America.
COP29 has underscored the Amazon’s critical role in global climate health and emphasized the need for strong, multilateral action to secure its future. As global leaders prepare for COP30 in Brazil, the international community faces a pivotal moment to implement comprehensive, equitable, and effective strategies for Amazon conservation. What we truly need is robust political action and sustained pressure on our governments to act decisively, as Colombia has demonstrated. However, given that a green transition in a single country cannot succeed in isolation, multilateral climate policies are essential — despite the evident shortcomings of the COP process in delivering meaningful results.
The COP is already home to Amazonian diplomacy, with its contradictions, and this role will only grow more prominent — and more contested — over the next year. Moving from Baku to Belém means much more than just changing cities for the traveling spectacle that the COPs have become. The changes ahead are immense: from ensuring robust financial mechanisms to supporting indigenous rights and sustainable livelihoods. However, with dedicated international cooperation, strong leadership, and popular pressure, COP30 in Belém could set a transformative agenda for the Amazon’s protection and mark a decisive step toward climate resilience.