Executive Summary:
- Ukraine’s expanding long-range drone campaign is eroding Russia’s strategic depth, bringing Russia’s major cities, industrial centers, and critical energy infrastructure within range and exposing vulnerabilities once protected by geography and distance.
- Growing attacks inside Russian territory have forced regions and businesses to fund their own air-defense measures, highlighting Moscow’s inability to provide adequate protection and increasing strain on Russia’s domestic political and economic stability.
- The Kremlin remains focused on capturing all of Donetsk oblast, but Ukraine’s emphasis on long-range drone warfare is disrupting Russian logistics, energy production, and military operations.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has seen a significant shift in the balance of power in recent months. On June 2, Russia launched a large-scale ballistic missile and drone strike on Ukraine, targeting the cities of Kyiv, Dnipro, and Kharkiv, killing at least 23 people and injuring more than 100 across Ukraine (RBC-Ukraine June 2 [1], [2]). Soon after the strike, on the night of June 2–3, Ukraine struck the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal and infrastructure in various regions of the city ahead of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum scheduled to begin on June 3 (X/@ZelenskyyUa; RIA Novosti, June 3). On the battlefield, parity appears to have been reached between the two sides. This is quite telling given that Russian President Vladimir Putin, at the start of the full-scale war in 2022, did not consider Ukraine a strong rival. Russia continues to heavily shell Ukrainian cities, but Russia’s major cities are now becoming the target of retaliatory strikes (Radio Svoboda, May 17). Ukrainian drones continue to strike military and energy targets in Moscow, despite the city traditionally, dating back to Soviet times, being the most heavily defended by air defense systems. Russia is losing its strategic depth that has provided it domestic shelter against the effects of the war, revealing the crumbling state of Moscow’s war machine.
The strain of the war is becoming evident on Russia’s homefront. Russia’s May 9 victory parade, which has become the main symbolic event of military strength in Putin’s Russia, was held in a scaled-down format, without military equipment, and lasted only about 45 minutes. Russian officials attributed this to the “operational situation,” which clearly hinted at concerns about the arrival of Ukrainian drones (see EDM, May 11). Ahead of the parade, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a presidential decree “allowing” it to be held in Moscow. He ultimately signed a permission slip for the event, demonstrating Ukraine’s evolving influence throughout the war (President of Ukraine, May 8).
About a quarter of Russia’s territory, home to 70 percent of its population, is now within the range of Ukrainian drones (DW, May 5). This includes major military-industrial and heavy industrial centers such as Yekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk, and Perm, which are located more than 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) from Ukraine and were previously considered the far rear. In the era of long-range drones, however, the very concept of “rear” is disappearing. Russia is losing the strategic depth, which saved it in previous wars. Neither Napoleon nor Hitler could have hoped to reach the Urals, but today, the Ural cities and factories are quite accessible targets. This result was brought about by an aggressive war unleashed by Russia itself.
Today, oil refining in central Russia has virtually ceased operations due to attacks by Ukrainian drones. Major refineries in the European part of the country targeted include those in Kirishi, Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod, Ryazan, and Yaroslavl. Together, they produced over 30 percent of Russia’s gasoline and approximately 25 percent of its diesel fuel (The Moscow Times, May 20).
The Kremlin is seemingly not paying enough attention to defending against these attacks, shifting this responsibility to the companies and regions themselves (Carnegie Politika, May 12). Even regions in Siberia and the Far East are preparing for Ukrainian drone attacks. Anti-drone defense systems are being installed at enterprises across Tyumen, Vladivostok, and Sakhalin. The funds to install these defense systems come from allocations from local authorities and businesses (Radio Svoboda, May 9). Putin seems not to be particularly concerned about these problems or about his country’s concerns.
Putin’s focus has been the complete seizure of Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast within its administrative borders. The Kremlin has long cited this as the main condition for any peace negotiations (see EDM, June 3, 4, 2025). Ukraine cannot agree to this, as it would entail a complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the oblast, resulting in the loss of the fortified areas of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and thereby opening a direct route to Kyiv for Russian troops. Russia has been continuing its “meat storms” on Donetsk towns and villages for years, suffering colossal casualties to accomplish this goal (The Moscow Times, January 28). Soviet Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov’s doctrine stated that the victors of future wars will not be those who focus on massive ground offensives, but those capable of delivering precision strikes against strategic targets behind enemy lines (Russian7.ru, August 27, 2021). The paradox is that his ideas are being adopted far more by Ukraine, which has become a world leader in producing long-range drones, than by Russia (Radio Svoboda, May 1).Russia’s loss of its strategic depth affects more than just its military actions. This process disrupts the economic and logistical connections between its vast expanses. In 2024, Tatarstan Head Rustam Minnikhanov called on every enterprise in the republic to “defend itself against drones independently” (Kommersant.ru, April 3, 2024). If the state effectively shifts responsibility for defense to the enterprises and the regions, this will inevitably lead their workers to political conclusions about greater independence, as they cannot rely on the state to protect them. Thus, an imperial attempt to conquer another country could result in the collapse of one’s own.
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