Executive Summary:
- The European Union has increased economic and connectivity infrastructure cooperation with Kazakhstan since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine created the need for the Middle Corridor, an east–west transit route that bypasses Russia via Central Asia.
- Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan Yermek Kosherbayev and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas discussed the expansion of trade ties on August 13. President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s June 23 visit to Brussels secured $11.4 billion in EU–Kazakhstan commercial deals.
- The development of the Middle Corridor is becoming inseparable from wider geopolitical competition over supply chains, critical minerals, and connectivity in Central Asia. Kazakhstan is a key player because of its transit corridor potential and substantial natural resources.
On August 13, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan Yermek Kosherbayev and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas discussed prospects for energy supplies via the Caspian Sea and the expansion of trade and economic ties during a phone call (Kazinform, August 13). This call builds on President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s June 23 talks with European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels, which focused on connectivity and development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR, also known as the Middle Corridor). They discussed strengthening relations and signed the Horizontal Aviation Agreement, which will remove red tape to allow eligible EU airlines to more easily operate bilateral air services. Negotiators also successfully concluded discussions on visa and readmission agreements, which will “strengthen connectivity and people-to-people ties” (European Commission; European Council, June 23).
Business leaders and government ministers from Kazakhstan signed commercial agreements worth about $11.4 billion following talks with Costa and von der Leyen (Euronews.ru, June 24). European leaders pledged to deepen cooperation with Kazakhstan under the 2015 Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA).
Costa’s trip to Astana in December 2025 similarly focused on economic cooperation (Anadolu, December 4, 2025). Diplomatic momentum between Kazakhstan and the European Union has been building for some time, but shifting geopolitics because of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has accelerated closer engagement. Moscow’s war against Ukraine and Western sanctions on the Kremlin have rerouted east–west connectivity around Russia. Central Asia has pushed for diversification of trade routes to decrease dependence on Russia as a relic from the Soviet period, and the European Union is seeking alternative routes to comply with sanctions and reduce risk. One such route is the Middle Corridor, which connects the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye. Kazakhstan has accordingly pushed for closer ties with Georgia and Azerbaijan, which are key states along the corridor, and expanded infrastructure links with the PRC (1tv.ge, June 29).
The European Union plans to invest up to $13.7 billion to develop connectivity across the South Caucasus, Caspian Sea, and Central Asia. EU statements following Tokayev’s visit to Brussels highlight the importance of the Middle Corridor and the European Global Gateway initiative, the European Union’s global connectivity infrastructure investment strategy. The initiative views Kazakhstan as a key link for connectivity between Central Asia and the European market. In 2025 alone, Kazakhstan–EU trade totaled $45.2 billion (Inbusiness.kz, June 11).
Plans to build the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)—a proposed 27-mile transit corridor connecting mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through southern Armenia—have strengthened the relevance of the Middle Corridor for the European Union. The project will help normalize relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, making regional investments less risky. Brussels views TRIPP as part of a wider effort to secure more reliable access to Central Asia’s mineral resources. TRIPP could gradually become part of a broader strategic infrastructure network combining freight transportation, energy flows, and green-energy projects.
Kazakhstan possesses substantial mineral reserves of uranium, copper, rare earth elements, and materials required for battery production. Central Asia is a major source of natural resources and has accordingly become an arena of competition among leading global powers. The United States and PRC are central actors in this contest, and Japan and South Korea are expanding their efforts to secure access to the region’s mineral deposits (The Astana Times, August 31).
Burgeoning EU–Kazakhstan ties are a product of the changing geopolitical landscape in Eurasia, and development of the Middle Corridor is a key aspect of this cooperation. The project has grown inseparable from wider geopolitical competition over supply chains, critical minerals, and strategic connectivity in Central Asia.
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