“Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail. Without it, nothing can succeed.” …Abraham Lincoln
Typically, since World War II, most Americans have supported U.S. military actions at their beginning. So, the lack of majority support for the Iran War at the start is unusual. A Reuters poll shows only 37 percent of Americans with 59 percent disapproving. Other polls show approval at about 40 percent with the remaining undecided or opposed.
By contrast the Iraq War began in 2003 with over 70 percent approving. By 2018, after 15 years of U.S. military presence in Iraq, only 43 percent approved. The 1991 Persian Gulf War, which lasted six weeks, got nearly 80% approval.
Over seventy percent approved of the 1983 U.S. invasion of Grenada and the 1986 strikes on Libya. Sixty five percent backed the humanitarian intervention in Somalia. A majority approved the 1999 strikes on Serbia. A plurality but not a majority approved the 2011 strikes on Libya.
The U.S. entered the Vietnam War in a big way in 1965 with about 60 percent approval and left the war in 1973 with about 30 percent approval. That war, which killed over 50,000 Americans, tore the country apart and ended badly. The Korean War began with 65 percent approval, which fell as the war became a seesawing quagmire. Support for U.S. military action is nearly always at its highest at the war’s start.
Nearly all U.S. military actions over the last 80 years began as a bipartisan project, with direct approval by or at least substantive consultation with Congress, accompanied by public explanations appealing to national bipartisan support.
One of the most successful presidential appeals for war support was President Nixon’s 1969 “Great Silent Majority” that explained his goal of gradual Vietnamization of the war, as native forces replaced U.S. troops. Nixon had been elected the year before with only 43 percent. But 77 percent approved of his speech.
Nixon explained:
I believe that one of the reasons for the deep division about Vietnam is that many Americans have lost confidence in what their government has told them about our policy. The American people cannot and should not be asked to support a policy which involves the overriding issues of war and peace unless they know the truth about that policy.
And he concluded:
And so tonight, to you, the great silent majority of my fellow Americans, I ask for your support. I pledged in my campaign for the presidency to end the war in a way that we could win the peace. I have initiated a plan of action which will enable me to keep that pledge. The more support I can have from the American people, the sooner that pledge can be redeemed, for the more divided we are at home, the less likely the enemy is to negotiate at Paris. Let us be united for peace. Let us also be united against defeat. Because let us understand: North Vietnam cannot defeat or humiliate the United States. Only Americans can do that.
Across the last 80 years, generally most Americans have rallied behind military and overseas actions, at least initially, because the objectives and stakes were explained to them on a nonpartisan basis. In today’s polarized America, appealing beyond the political base is more difficult but not impossible. Nixon’s era and the Vietnam era were also highly polarized, if in different ways. New acts of statecraft are needed to navigate and transcend today’s divisions.
Waging war with only a partisan base comprising a minority of the population only amplifies domestic polarization. And it obviously weakens American resolve for strong actions on the world stage. No democracy, however adamant, can long wage war or sustain an international policy absent majority support. Nor should a responsible democracy even try. The arguments must be made to persuade the majority. War is government’s most important and dangerous vocation.
It’s often said that democracies fight the most ferocious wars because their wars are backed by public opinion, which makes them rare but intense. Dictatorships of course are never confident in public opinion, which is suppressed. Russia’s fiasco in Ukraine illustrates the difference. Putin started a war capriciously without public conversation. Russia has recklessly suffered over one million casualties, including possibly 300,000 dead, with few accomplishments and no end in sight. Dissenters in Russia stay silent or flee the country. Ukraine, even under assault, continues its public debates, which ensures a public consensus in their remarkable fight for national survival.
Democracies persuade and ultimately trust the judgment of their people. America is the greatest of democracies. Our 340 million people love liberty and pulsate with energy. We are not as a people cajoled easily. We must be persuaded. We expect our judgement to be respected. All of us count.
Hopefully, the Iran War achieves its objectives quickly. But the lack of public persuasion and bipartisanship sets a dangerous precedent. And if the war persists, the lack of public support will become a great liability obvious to our enemies.
America has won great wars because most people backed them. Where support was lost, or barely appeared even at the start, the wars became feckless or tragic. Lincoln understood both war and public opinion. And he intuited that American public opinion was a great, almost irresistible tide that can carry all before it, and should not be trifled with. Most importantly, Lincoln knew the American people, including even many of his adversaries, merited respect, and collectively were often wiser than their leaders.
“Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail. Without it, nothing can succeed.” …Abraham Lincoln
Typically, since World War II, most Americans have supported U.S. military actions at their beginning. So, the lack of majority support for the Iran War at the start is unusual. A Reuters poll shows only 37 percent of Americans with 59 percent disapproving. Other polls show approval at about 40 percent with the remaining undecided or opposed.
By contrast the Iraq War began in 2003 with over 70 percent approving. By 2018, after 15 years of U.S. military presence in Iraq, only 43 percent approved. The 1991 Persian Gulf War, which lasted six weeks, got nearly 80% approval.
Over seventy percent approved of the 1983 U.S. invasion of Grenada and the 1986 strikes on Libya. Sixty five percent backed the humanitarian intervention in Somalia. A majority approved the 1999 strikes on Serbia. A plurality but not a majority approved the 2011 strikes on Libya.
The U.S. entered the Vietnam War in a big way in 1965 with about 60 percent approval and left the war in 1973 with about 30 percent approval. That war, which killed over 50,000 Americans, tore the country apart and ended badly. The Korean War began with 65 percent approval, which fell as the war became a seesawing quagmire. Support for U.S. military action is nearly always at its highest at the war’s start.
Nearly all U.S. military actions over the last 80 years began as a bipartisan project, with direct approval by or at least substantive consultation with Congress, accompanied by public explanations appealing to national bipartisan support.
One of the most successful presidential appeals for war support was President Nixon’s 1969 “Great Silent Majority” that explained his goal of gradual Vietnamization of the war, as native forces replaced U.S. troops. Nixon had been elected the year before with only 43 percent. But 77 percent approved of his speech.
Nixon explained:
I believe that one of the reasons for the deep division about Vietnam is that many Americans have lost confidence in what their government has told them about our policy. The American people cannot and should not be asked to support a policy which involves the overriding issues of war and peace unless they know the truth about that policy.
And he concluded:
And so tonight, to you, the great silent majority of my fellow Americans, I ask for your support. I pledged in my campaign for the presidency to end the war in a way that we could win the peace. I have initiated a plan of action which will enable me to keep that pledge. The more support I can have from the American people, the sooner that pledge can be redeemed, for the more divided we are at home, the less likely the enemy is to negotiate at Paris. Let us be united for peace. Let us also be united against defeat. Because let us understand: North Vietnam cannot defeat or humiliate the United States. Only Americans can do that.
Across the last 80 years, generally most Americans have rallied behind military and overseas actions, at least initially, because the objectives and stakes were explained to them on a nonpartisan basis. In today’s polarized America, appealing beyond the political base is more difficult but not impossible. Nixon’s era and the Vietnam era were also highly polarized, if in different ways. New acts of statecraft are needed to navigate and transcend today’s divisions.
Waging war with only a partisan base comprising a minority of the population only amplifies domestic polarization. And it obviously weakens American resolve for strong actions on the world stage. No democracy, however adamant, can long wage war or sustain an international policy absent majority support. Nor should a responsible democracy even try. The arguments must be made to persuade the majority. War is government’s most important and dangerous vocation.
It’s often said that democracies fight the most ferocious wars because their wars are backed by public opinion, which makes them rare but intense. Dictatorships of course are never confident in public opinion, which is suppressed. Russia’s fiasco in Ukraine illustrates the difference. Putin started a war capriciously without public conversation. Russia has recklessly suffered over one million casualties, including possibly 300,000 dead, with few accomplishments and no end in sight. Dissenters in Russia stay silent or flee the country. Ukraine, even under assault, continues its public debates, which ensures a public consensus in their remarkable fight for national survival.
Democracies persuade and ultimately trust the judgment of their people. America is the greatest of democracies. Our 340 million people love liberty and pulsate with energy. We are not as a people cajoled easily. We must be persuaded. We expect our judgement to be respected. All of us count.
Hopefully, the Iran War achieves its objectives quickly. But the lack of public persuasion and bipartisanship sets a dangerous precedent. And if the war persists, the lack of public support will become a great liability obvious to our enemies.
America has won great wars because most people backed them. Where support was lost, or barely appeared even at the start, the wars became feckless or tragic. Lincoln understood both war and public opinion. And he intuited that American public opinion was a great, almost irresistible tide that can carry all before it, and should not be trifled with. Most importantly, Lincoln knew the American people, including even many of his adversaries, merited respect, and collectively were often wiser than their leaders.