Trump administration’s bid to win congressional backing for controversial Saudi nuclear deal hits latest snag, amid report that US intelligence agencies warned Riyadh still open to pursuing nuclear weapons.
By World Israel News Staff
US intelligence agencies have assessed that Saudi Arabia has not ruled out eventually developing nuclear weapons, raising new proliferation concerns as Congress reviews a landmark agreement that would help Riyadh build a civilian nuclear industry with American assistance.
The classified assessment was included in documents provided to lawmakers examining the US-Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement, the Washington Post reported, which was signed in July and would clear the legal path for American companies to participate in the kingdom’s planned nuclear program.
The intelligence finding does not conclude that Saudi Arabia has decided to build a bomb or is currently pursuing one. Rather, it indicates that US intelligence believes Riyadh has kept that option open as it seeks capabilities that could eventually include domestic uranium enrichment.
The assessment has intensified a congressional debate over how much nuclear capability Washington should permit Saudi Arabia to develop and what safeguards should be required in return.
The agreement, commonly known as a “123 agreement” under the US Atomic Energy Act, was signed July 22 by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.
The administration has presented the pact as a way to deepen strategic ties with Riyadh, expand opportunities for the American nuclear industry and prevent Saudi Arabia from turning to China or Russia to develop its nuclear infrastructure.
Wright said when the agreement was announced that it would uphold “the highest standards of nuclear safety and nonproliferation.”
But critics in Congress say its terms depart from stricter agreements Washington has concluded with some other countries.
Unlike the US nuclear cooperation agreement with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia would not permanently renounce uranium enrichment and spent-fuel reprocessing — technologies that can have civilian uses but can also provide pathways toward producing material for nuclear weapons.
Under the arrangement under review, Saudi enrichment would initially be restricted to below 5%, but the limit could later rise to as much as 20% following further study and an additional written agreement.
That threshold carries particular proliferation sensitivity. US and international nuclear authorities classify uranium enriched to 20% or higher as highly enriched uranium, although material used in nuclear weapons is generally enriched to substantially higher levels.
The agreement also does not require Saudi Arabia to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Additional Protocol, which grants inspectors broader access to nuclear-related sites and information and is intended to improve the agency’s ability to detect undeclared nuclear activity.
A group of Democratic senators led by Sens. Ed Markey of Massachusetts and Jeff Merkley of Oregon urged Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday to abandon the agreement unless stronger restrictions are imposed.
They accused the administration of “departing from precedent, adopting looser restrictions, and caving to Saudi demands.”
The senators called for Saudi Arabia to accept what is commonly known as the nuclear nonproliferation “Gold Standard,” including a prohibition on domestic enrichment and reprocessing and acceptance of the IAEA Additional Protocol.
Merkley questioned why Riyadh would insist on maintaining sensitive nuclear capabilities if its intentions were exclusively civilian.
“It’s bogus as hell,” he said.
Saudi officials have consistently said the kingdom’s nuclear ambitions are peaceful.
Prince Abdulaziz has described the planned program as “peaceful” and said it would operate with “the highest levels of responsibility and transparency.”
The US State Department has also defended the agreement, saying Washington “does not and will not support a Saudi nuclear weapon program.”
Administration officials argue that bringing Saudi Arabia’s nuclear development into a US-led framework would provide Washington with greater influence over the program than if Riyadh instead partnered with Beijing or Moscow.
The debate has been complicated by past statements from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman linking the kingdom’s nuclear posture directly to Iran.
In a 2018 television interview, the crown prince said Saudi Arabia did not seek a nuclear bomb but would change course if its regional rival acquired one.
“Without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible,” he said.
That statement has taken on renewed significance as questions continue over the future of Iran’s nuclear program and the fate of its enriched uranium following military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Markey warned that allowing Saudi Arabia to develop sensitive nuclear capabilities could contribute to a wider competition for nuclear weapons in the Middle East.
He said developments involving Iran, combined with expanding Saudi capabilities, could “further accelerate a fallout nuclear arms race in the region.”
The intelligence assessment presented to Congress reportedly takes a more cautious view of Saudi intentions than the State Department, which expressed greater confidence in Riyadh’s assurances and in the safeguards built into the cooperation agreement.
The CIA has declined to comment publicly on the classified assessment.
Congress is currently within the statutory review period for the nuclear agreement.
Lawmakers can attempt to block the pact through a joint resolution of disapproval, although overcoming a presidential veto would require a two-thirds majority.
Some House Democrats have already moved toward formally opposing the agreement, but its ultimate fate could also depend on a separate issue: Saudi normalization with Israel.
President Donald Trump said shortly after the agreement was signed that he would not allow it to proceed unless Riyadh joined the Abraham Accords and established diplomatic relations with Israel.
Saudi Arabia has maintained that normalization would require meaningful movement toward the establishment of a Palestinian state, leaving the diplomatic component of the broader US-Saudi negotiations unresolved.
Riyadh says civilian nuclear power is part of its effort to diversify its energy sector, reduce domestic consumption of oil and gas and support the kingdom’s long-term economic transformation.
The US nuclear industry could also receive contracts worth tens of billions of dollars if Saudi Arabia moves ahead with a large reactor-building program.
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