Executive Summary:
- On July 11, authorities aligned with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) accused the Ethiopian federal government of preparing for war and declared that the November 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement had “collapsed.”
- Tigrayan authorities have begun conducting forced civilian conscription and engaging in armed clashes and drone strikes with federal forces since June.
- This renewed standoff threatens to revive insurgency and conventional warfare, risking a broader regional conflict if foreign powers intervene with funding, training, or arms.
Tensions in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region escalated again over the summer. On July 11, Tigrayan authorities aligned with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) accused the Ethiopian federal government of preparing for war and declared that the November 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement had “collapsed.” The statement indicated that Tigray’s current leadership no longer regarded the peace agreement, which ended the 2020–2022 civil war, as a viable mechanism for resolving the region’s political and territorial disputes (Addis Standard, July 11).
The latest confrontation arose after the TPLF restored Tigray’s pre-war regional council and installed party chairman Debretsion Gebremichael as regional president. This created a parallel administration that challenged the federally recognized Tigray Interim Administration (The Reporter Ethiopia, May 16). The TPLF justified this move by arguing that the federal government in Addis Ababa failed to implement key provisions of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, including the return of displaced populations and disputed territories, the normalization of public services, and the establishment of an agreed postwar political order. Federal authorities and international partners, however, accused the TPLF of violating the agreement by creating parallel institutions and pursuing unilateral military mobilization (The Reporter Ethiopia, June 29).
What began as a political dispute quickly became a military one. For example, a draft Tigray proclamation proposed compulsory mobilization, expanded security powers, penalties for obstructing recruitment, and a centralized command structure headed by the regional president (Addis Standard, June 9). The European Union later expressed concern about what it described as unilateral military conscription in Tigray and called for urgent talks to implement the 2022 agreement (The Reporter Ethiopia, June 29). The United States imposed visa restrictions in June on individuals accused of undermining the peace process after renewed clashes between Tigrayan and federal forces occurred (Capital Ethiopia, June 18). Human Rights Watch also reported that Tigrayan authorities had been forcibly recruiting civilians since at least April, including children as young as 15, through house-to-house searches and seizures at workplaces, although the TPLF denied such allegations (Human Rights Watch, July 6). Thousands of demonstrators also rallied in Addis Ababa on July 18 against the forced mobilization in Tigray (Africanews, July 18).
The standoff between Tigray authorities and the federal government had crossed the threshold of military action on June 5. Then, a federal government drone strike targeted military transport vehicles near Sheraro in northwestern Tigray, causing several casualties. Although no one claimed responsibility, the incident showed how quickly the confrontation could become further militarized (The Reporter Ethiopia, June 13).
The confrontation escalated even further on August 1, when federal and Tigrayan forces clashed in western Tigray close to the Sudanese border. The TPLF accused federal forces of launching a heavy-artillery offensive, while a federal minister blamed the TPLF for provoking the fighting (Al Jazeera, August 1). On August 10, the TPLF also accused the federal government of carrying out drone strikes at Merewa in southern Tigray that caused casualties among Tigrayan forces (Addis Standard, August 11).
The TPLF is an ethno-nationalist political-military organization with extensive experience in guerrilla and conventional warfare. A return to insurgency could involve bombings, assassinations, sabotage, attacks on infrastructure, coercive recruitment, and intimidation of civilians who support the federal government or live under its rule. The presence of two opposing governments with their own armed forces, along with compulsory mobilization and declarations that the peace agreement has collapsed, indicates that the Tigray conflict is once again moving beyond a constitutional or legal dispute toward an organized military confrontation. This could draw foreign powers into the fray in an already volatile region. Foreign funding, training, and arms for either side could spark a much broader conflagration.
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