Executive Summary:
- Türkiye announced that preparations for official bilateral trade with Armenia were completed on May 11. Goods no longer need to be reregistered in a third country before reaching their final destination when moving between the two countries.
- Armenia and Türkiye are slowly advancing their normalization, and initiating official bilateral trade is a major milestone. Friendlier economic relations, especially in trade and transit, are an important part of this process.
- The normalization process between Armenia and Türkiye is highly contingent on the Armenia–Azerbaijan relationship. Azerbaijani and Turkish officials have stated that Türkiye’s land borders with Armenia could be opened following Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry announced that preparations for initiating official bilateral trade between Türkiye and Armenia were completed as of May 11. Before this, bilateral trade of goods between Türkiye and Armenia was not possible without the goods being reregistered through a third country. This means that the final destination or origin of goods going from Türkiye to a third country and then to Armenia, or coming from Armenia using the same route, does not need to be reregistered in the third country, but can be written as “Armenia/Türkiye” (Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs; OC-Media, May 13). Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan explained to reporters on May 12 that, under previous regulations, Türkiye did not include Armenia on the list of destination countries, but now Türkiye is allowing Armenia to be listed directly as the country of destination on export documents (Armenpress, May 12). Armenian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Ani Badalyan wrote that Armenia “welcome[s] Türkiye’s decision to lift the bans on bilateral trade with Armenia.” She emphasized, “This is an important step towards the development of full-fledged and normal relations between the two countries” (X/@ArmSpoxMFA, May 13). A week before the announcement, on May 4, Pashinyan and Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz signed a memorandum of understanding in Yerevan to restore the Ani Bridge, which lies on the Armenia–Türkiye border, and discussed potential cooperation in transport, customs, energy, and digital infrastructure (Anadolu Ajansı, May 4).
Both sides are still working on the processes necessary to reopen border crossings between the two countries. Ruben Rubinyan, the Vice Speaker of the Armenian Parliament and Special Representative for Normalization with Türkiye, stated that future steps could include opening the Gyumri–Kars railway (Hurriyet Daily News; Armenpress, May 13). The European External Action Service (EEAS) said in a press release that this development could increase trade and economic opportunities in the region and benefit the entire South Caucasus and the European Union (EEAS, May 13). Armenia and Türkiye are slowly advancing their normalization process, and economic progress, especially in trade and transit, is a major aspect of this.
Relations between Türkiye and Armenia have long been strained. The border between Armenia and Türkiye is not fully open, and diplomatic relations between the two countries have not been established due to Armenia’s territorial claims against Türkiye following the Soviet Union’s collapse (see EDM, November 2, 2022). Türkiye officially closed the Turkish–Armenian border in 1993, during the First Nagorno-Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in which Türkiye supported Azerbaijan. In 2022, however, the Türkiye–Armenia border was opened for third-country citizens “visiting Türkiye and Armenia respectively,” and Yerevan and Ankara agreed to begin direct air cargo trade between the two countries (Anadolu Ajansı, July 1, 2022; see EDM, November 2, 2022).
Over the past few years, Yerevan and Ankara have taken steps toward normalization. Both sides have agreed to the goal of developing a relationship “without preconditions” (Government of Armenia, August 2021; see EDM, January 24, 2022). In December 2021, Ankara and Yerevan agreed to appoint special representatives for the normalization process, who have held six meetings (Anadolu Ajansı, December 14, 2021; Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, last updated April 15). Yerevan has stated that it has been waiting for Ankara to make the first move in advancing their normalization (CNN Türk, April 17). On May 19, Turkish Member of Parliament Ömer Faruk Gergerlioğlu stated in an interview with Ermeni Haber Ajansı that Türkiye seeks to maintain the upper hand and control over the situation with Armenia while also viewing the issue from an Azerbaijan-centric perspective (Ermeni Haber Ajansı, May 19).
The normalization process between Armenia and Türkiye is highly contingent on the Armenia–Azerbaijan relationship (see EDM, April 10, May 14, September 30, 2009, April 5, November 2, 2022). One of the largest sticking points in Armenia and Türkiye’s relationship today is the ongoing peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive to fully gain control of Karabakh (see EDM, November 12, 30, 2020, October 2, 2023, May 6, 2024). Türkiye and Azerbaijan are often referred to as one nation, two states. This means that much of Türkiye’s stance on Armenia depends on Armenia’s relationship with Azerbaijan (Ermeni Haber Ajansı, May 19).
The past year has seen significant progress in the peace process between Baku and Yerevan. The most notable development occurred during Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s August 2025 meeting in Washington, which led to an agreement for the development of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a corridor that will connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia’s Syunik province (see EDM, August 12, September 8, October 15, 2025). The TRIPP would enable Azerbaijan to access Nakhchivan and, by extension, Türkiye more efficiently and become a core component of the Middle Corridor (also known as the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route, or TITR) connecting the South Caucasus to Europe (see EDM, September 24, 2025). The successful implementation of TRIPP and the increase in trade through Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye that could come from it are dependent on the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process.
On May 18, Azerbaijani Ambassador to Türkiye Rashad Mammadov stated in an interview with the Turkish news outlet Cumhuriyet that Azerbaijan is pursuing the Armenia–Türkiye normalization process in parallel with the Armenia–Azerbaijan normalization process. He claimed that the Armenia–Türkiye and Armenia–Azerbaijan land borders could be opened after Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections and constitutional referendum, in which Azerbaijan hopes Armenians will vote to reform the Armenian Constitution to remove what Baku states are “territorial claims” to Azerbaijan (see EDM, June 25, 2024, August 12, 2025; Cumhuriyet, May 18). The beginning of bilateral trade between Armenia and Türkiye is a significant step forward in their normalization process and brings additional economic opportunities for both countries. Developing transit routes through the South Caucasus to Europe, including TRIPP and the Middle Corridor, provides greater impetus to advance Türkiye and Armenia’s economic ties. Currently, Armenia’s only open land borders are with Georgia and Iran. Since the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran began in February, Armenia’s transit options via land have been largely limited to Georgia (see EDM, May 19). Bilateral trade—and, eventually, open land borders—with Türkiye will enable Armenia to diversify its trade partners and build stronger economic ties with both Türkiye and Europe.
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